About the numbers

Sources of the data

Information on 2002 and projected 2012 occupational employment was developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of its ongoing Occupational Employment Projections Program. These data, derived from the 2002-2012 National Employment Matrix, underlie information on occupational employment growth presented in the 2004-2005 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. Data on the unemployment rate and the percent working part time were derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS); data on earnings were derived from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey. The information presented on this site was developed to produce the 2004-2005 edition of Occupational Projections and Training Data. Those data are available in tab-delimited format for those desiring to conduct their own analyses of the data. To download this file, visit our ftp site.

Occupational classification

The occupations covered reflect the occupational classification used in the Occupational Employment Statistics survey, the source used to generate data to develop the 2002 National Employment Matrix. The OES survey data are consistent with the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. Data on the self-employed, unemployment rate, and the percent working part time are based on Current Population Survey data for equivalent occupations. A crosswalk was used to distribute CPS data to occupations in the National Employment Matrix.

Projections updates

National occupational projections are developed every other year. The next National projections cycle will cover the 2004-2014 period. Those projections are scheduled to be published in the November 2005 Monthly Labor Review and to be available on this web site very soon after that date.

Definitions

• Total employment. Total employment includes wage and salary workers, self-employed workers, and unpaid family workers.



• Percent self-employed. This reflects the percent of total workers employed in an occupation in 2002 whose primary or secondary job was in an unincorporated business that they owned.



• Part-time workers. This reflects the proportion of all workers in an occupation who work fewer than 35 hours per week. The average for 2000, 2001, and 2002 was used to derive the quartile ranking.



• Unemployment rate. The average for 2000, 2001, and 2002 was used to derive the quartile ranking.



• Job openings. Job openings due to growth plus total replacement needs represent annual average job openings stemming from projected employment change over the 2002-2012 period and replacement of workers who leave their jobs to work in another occupation, stop working because of retirement or other reasons, or die. Job openings due to growth plus net replacement needs represent annual average job openings stemming from projected employment change over the 2002-2012 period and net replacement of workers who leave their jobs to work in another occupation, leave the labor force because of retirement or other reasons, or die. Net replacements are less than total replacements because a measure of entrants is subtracted from the number leaving the occupation. Growth plus net replacements are an appropriate measure of minimum training needs for an occupation and growth plus total replacement needs are an appropriate measure of the number of available job openings. For additional information about job openings, see Chapter V of Occupation Projections and Training Data.



• Median annual earnings. Median annual earnings of workers in 2002 were obtained from the OES survey for most occupations. CPS data provided the estimates for occupations not covered by the OES survey.



• Postsecondary-education or training categories. Occupations are classified into one of eleven categories listed below based on analysis of the occupation's most significant source of postsecondary-education or training according to these principles :
  
  
  • An occupation is placed into the category that best describes the postsecondary-education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified.
  • Postsecondary awards, if generally needed for entry into the occupation, take precedence over work-related training even though additional skills or experience may be needed for a worker to become fully qualified.
  • The length of time an average worker generally needs to become fully qualified through a combination of on-the-job training and experience is used to categorize occupations in which a postsecondary award generally is not needed for entry.

  Postsecondary awards

  First professional degree. Completion of the degree usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor's degree.
  
  Doctoral degree. Completion of a Ph.D. or other doctoral degree usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor's degree.
  
  Master's degree. Completion of the degree usually requires 1 or 2 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor's degree.
  
  Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience. Most occupations in this category are management occupations. All require experience in a related non-management position for which a bachelor's or higher degree is usually required.
  
  Bachelor's degree. Completion of the degree generally requires at least 4 years, but not more than 5 years, of full-time academic study.
  
  Associate degree. Completion of the degree usually requires at least 2 years of full-time academic study.
  
  Postsecondary vocational award. Some programs last only a few weeks while others may last more that a year. Programs lead to a certificate or other award but not a degree.
  
  

  Work-related training

  Work experience in a related occupation. Many occupations requiring work experience are first-line supervisors/managers of service, sales and related, production, or other occupations, or are management occupations.
  
  Long-term on-the-job training. More than 12 months of on-the-job training or combined work experience and formal classroom instruction are needed for workers to develop the skills necessary to be fully qualified. This category includes formal and informal apprenticeships that may last up to 5 years. Long-term on-the-job training also includes intensive occupation-specific, employer-sponsored programs that workers must successfully complete. These include fire and police academies and schools for air traffic controllers and flight attendants. In other occupations—insurance sales and securities sales, for example—trainees take formal courses, often provided on the job site, to prepare for the required licensing exams. Individuals undergoing training generally are considered to be employed in the occupation. Also included in this category is the development of a natural ability—such as that possessed by musicians, athletes, actors, and other entertainers— that must be cultivated over several years, frequently in a nonwork setting.
  
  Moderate-term on-the-job training. Skills needed to be fully qualified can be acquired during 1 to 12 months of combined on-the-job experience and informal training.
  
  Short-term on-the-job training. Skills needed to be fully qualified can be acquired during a short demonstration of job duties or during 1 month or less of on-the-job experience or instruction.
  
  

• Educational attainment cluster. Six clusters are defined based on the distribution of educational attainment across occupations. The clusters are as follows: HS = High school occupations, HS/SC = High school/Some college occupations, HS/SC/C = High school/Some college/College occupations, SC/C = Some college/College occupations, and C = College occupations. For a full description of this new analytical product, see Chapter I of Occupational Projections and Training Data.
  
  
• Percent of workers aged 25 to 44, by educational attainment. Many occupations have multiple sources of education and training and are difficult to assign to a single category. To provide insight into alternative routes to obtaining entry into an occupation, data drawn from the CPS are presented on the percentage of employees in each occupation who are aged 25-44 years and who have a high school degree or less, some college (including, but not limited to, recipients of associate degrees), or at least a bachelor’s degree. Individuals in surveyed households self-report their occupation and highest educational attainment. For more information, see Chapter I of Occupational Projections and Training Data.
  
  

  Note

  The accuracy of projections for individual occupations is subject, of course, to error because of the many unknown factors that will affect the economy over the projection period. Furthermore, while occupational employment projections and related job outlook information can provide valuable inputs to the career decision-making process, they should not be the sole basis for a choice of career.

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  Last Modified Date: September 8, 2004

URL: http://www.bls.gov/EMP